Global Job Crisis
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) says in its annual Global Employment Trends report that global unemployment in 2009 could increase over 2007 by a range of 18 million to 30 million workers, and more than 50 million if the situation continues to deteriorate.
Getting pushed into extreme poverty could just be the fate for some 200 million workers, mostly in developing countries, this being the effects of the worst-case scenario (50 million job losses).
“The ILO message is realistic, not alarmist. We are now facing a global jobs crisis. Many governments are aware and acting, but more decisive and coordinated international action is needed to avert a global social recession. Progress in poverty reduction is unravelling and middle classes worldwide are weakening. The political and security implications are daunting”, said ILO Director-General, Juan Somavia.
The figures indicated that developed economies would be hit the hardest by the economic crisis with the fastest rise in unemployment rates, from an average of 5.7 per cent in 2007 up to 6.6-7.9 per cent in 2009.
East Asia, which had the lowest regional unemployment rate at 3.5 per cent in 2007, could also experience a jump to 4.5-5.5 per cent in a year.
I fail to understand how these numbers are not alarming to a world already week on economic sentiments.
But is increasing unemployment as bad as we think it is?
According to Adrian Sinfield (Professor Emeritus of Social Policy at the University of Edinburgh), when there is high unemployment, the employed feel less secure, workers are less willing to leave unsatisfactory jobs, divisions in society increase, the prospect of equality of opportunity decreases.
Some experts argue that this occurred in some inner cities of Britain and helped cause the riots of the 1980s. Various attempts have been made to link unemployment to many social ills such as ill-health, premature death, attempted and actual suicide, marriage breakdown, child battering, racial conflicts and football hooliganism.
However, I think an unemployed person would work that much harder and better in order to get back on his/her feet. Some people may call me a war profiteer considering that we are at economic world war but people with existing jobs would work ( or be pushed to work) harder for the fear of loosing their job.
In all this panic there is a ray of ‘hope’. According to labour experts the impact on the working population in percentage terms would still be well below what was experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Maybe it’s time to become a realist, to prepare for the worst. There is just one problem, how does one define the ‘worst’? Is the worst yet to come? Unfortunately there is only one way to find out – wait and watch!
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